Technical Analysis

Economic calendar in Asia – China economic activity data for November, Australia jobs

It’s a busy data agenda ahead.

Poor Chinese data will be discounted quickly given the moves towards reopening we’ve recently had are expected to boost economic growth in the months ahead.

Note that the press conference from the NBS has been cancelled:

Australia’s jobs report for November is expected to show a strong result. The Reserve Bank of Australia is not data-dependent right now (maybe if it’s a blow-out in either direction they’ll pay attention), they are on a path of slowing the pace of rate hikes while they assess the impact of the rate hikes so far in 2022. In May this year the Bank finally realised the time had come to move rates up from emergency settings. Which, of course, was way too late and inflation has continued to rocket higher. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spent time in his comments yesterday swatting away calls for his resignation despite this massive mistake from the Bank.

As for FX rate moves ahead for today, I suspect these will be severely curtailed as trades await statements from

  • the Swiss National Bank (0830 GMT followed by the news conference at 0900 GMT)
  • the Bank of England (1200 GMT)
  • the European Central Bank (1315 GMT, presser follows a half four later)

3* +50bp is the consensus expectation for this lot.

  • This
    snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access
    it here
  • The
    times in the left-most column are GMT.
  • The
    numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous
    month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column
    next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median

  • I’ve
    noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity
    of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

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