Technical Analysis

What’s priced into the Fed funds market ahead of Powell’s speech

The market is increasingly leaning towards a 50 bps Fed hike on December 14 so if the FOMC wants to change that, Powell will need to deliver a hawkish speech today.

The pricing in the Fed funds futures market right now shows an 81% chance of a 50 bps hike with the remainder at 75 bps. That’s tilted less hawkishly recently but I’d argue that it’s much more important for the dollar and broader markets where terminal pricing lands.

On that front, May is priced at 5.05% now, which has crept up since earlier this month, though it’s certainly been volatile since CPI.

The final piece of the puzzle is the question of how long rates will stay high. The Dec 2023 pricing is at 4.67% and that has been creeping up on hopes for a soft landing. I’m also increasingly thinking about how a China reopening could affect global inflation and I think that’s going to be a tradable theme.

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