Technical Analysis

What prediction markets are saying about Republicans’ chances in the midterms

It’s a bad idea to trust polls or prediction markets after what we’ve seen for the past decade but there’s still nothing better. Nate Silver gives the Democrats a 16% chance of holding the House but betting markets put it lower than that with Predictit at 10%.

The only real drama is whether the Dems manage to hold onto 50 seats in the Senate. Among the close rates, here are the Predictit numbers; though I would not that most have ticked 1-3 cents in favor of Democrats today.

  • Nevada 67% Republican
  • Pennsylvania 60% Republican
  • Arizona – dead even
  • New Hampshire 39% Republican
  • Senate overall 69% Republican

I don’t see Georgia trading but it will most-likely head to a runoff in a month with the Libertarian candidate polling at 3-4% and the race very close.

See the numbers here.

For me, the only scenario I could see have strong (negative) market impacts would be a Democratic sweep.

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