Technical Analysis

What isn’t in sync are rates today? Yields.


The US stocks are bulled up today, with the Nasdaq leading the way in the major indices with a gain of 1.48%. The riskier stocks as measured by Cathy Woods ARK Innovation fund is doing even better with a gain of 2.85%.

Typically, lower yields help that flow, but if you look at the US yields today, they are up nicely. The 2 year yield is up 7.3 basis points at 4.191%. The 10 year yield is at 3.49% up nearly 10 basis points on the day.

The move higher in the 10 year comes after the low yesterday tested the 200 day MA at 3.331%. If the Fed is going to 5.0-5.25% as the terminal rate, that was a fairly big spread. So I am not surprised to see the yield move higher today.

US 10 year yield is up above 10 bps today

Stocks moving higher? Is that out of whack?

Technically, I wrote earlier how the Nasdaq is back above the 100 day MA near 11001. So technically, there is some technical hope with the index at 11018.90 and trading near the highs currently. Stay above the 100 day MA is a tilt to the upside.

Fundamentally, if the Fed tightens to a recession in order to push up unemployment higher, and rid any risk of inflation coming back, what will that do to earnings?

The earnings calendar heats up over the next few weeks. Today Netflix did pretty good and that is helping the bias, but will others do as well?

Below are a list of the major releases. There is something for everyone, and the stocks will be paying attention to not only the raw numbers for the quarter, but the expectations going forward.

There certainly are many analysts out there who are saying the stocks are not pricing in an earnings recession. Goldman’s Mike Wilson continues to see the October lows as the minimum downside target.

Today, the Fed black out period begins ahead of the February 1 rate decision. On that day, Meta will report earnings. The next day the following companies report.

  • Apple
  • Amazon
  • Visa
  • MasterCard
  • Merck and Company
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb

The day before the Fed, Alphabet leads the releases.

Circle those days on your calendar. They should help to give a clearer picture for yields and stocks.

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Calendar of earnings next week and going forward:

Tuesday, January 24

  • Microsoft
  • J&J
  • Verizon
  • Raytheon
  • Lockheed Martin
  • General Electric
  • 3M
  • Travelers

Wednesday, January 25

  • Tesla
  • AT&T
  • IBM
  • Boeing
  • ServiceNow
  • General Dynamics
  • Hess

Thursday, January 26

  • McDonald’s
  • Comcast
  • Intel
  • Intuitive Surgical
  • Freeport McMoran
  • Dow
  • Southwest airlines
  • US Steel

Tuesday, January 31

  • Alphabet
  • Exxon Mobil
  • Pfizer
  • Caterpillar
  • AMD
  • Stryker
  • General Motors

Wednesday, February 1

  • Meta-Platforms
  • Alibaba
  • PayPal holdings
  • Boston Scientific

Thursday, February 2

  • Apple
  • Amazon
  • Visa
  • MasterCard
  • Merck and Company
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb
  • ConocoPhillips
  • Honeywell
  • Amgen
  • Qualcomm
  • Starbucks
  • Ford Motor
  • Motorola

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