Technical Analysis

USDJPY extends above 100 hour MA but falls short of 38.2% retracement of the week’s range

The USDJPY moved up to a new high. Stocks have rebounded from earlier declines. The Dow Industrial Average is up 0.34%. The S&P index is up 0.44% and the NASDAQ index is up 0.25%

Yields are higher as well. The 2 year is up 4.8 basis points while the 10 year is up 5.4 basis points

USDJPY moves higher but short of the 38.2% retracement

Looking at the hourly chart, the pair moved sharply lower on the back of the surprise BOJ shift early on Tuesday. The price tumble took the pair to a low of 130.556, but has been stepping higher in choppy up and down trading since then.

Today’s move has seen the pair extend above the falling 100 hour MA at 132.931, but fell short of the 38.2% retracement of the move down this week at 133.196. The high price today has reached 133.14 – just five pips short of the 38.2% retracement level.

The price has since moved back below the 100 are moving average of 132.931. The current price trades at 132.83. Getting back above the 100 hour moving average and above the 38.2% retracement are the minimum targets if the buyers are to start to be taken more seriously.

Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the price did move back above the 50% midpoint of the 2022 trading range at 132.70. Recall from yesterday, the high price extended near that level but backed off. Staying above the 50% midpoint level is a small bullish shift. If the price can stay above traders may look to extend further to the upside.

The low prices this week moved down to 130.55. That got within 17 pips of the swing low going back to early August. Early buyers leaned against the old low and stalled the fall, and started the corrective move back to the upside.

USDJPY back above the 50% midpoint of the 2022 trading range

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