Technical Analysis

USDCHF tests the low from October 27

The USDCHF bottomed most recently on October 27 near its 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart. The following week of trading saw the price move higher , and in the process, retest the high price from October 21 at 1.01470. That completed the down and up “lap” from the October 21 high to the October 27 low to the November 3 high

Since the November 3 high, the USDCHF price has moved down 305 pips and tested the low from October 27 at 0.9408. So that completed the lap from the October 27 low to the November 3 high and down to the November 8 low.

Lots of symmetry so far in the USDCHF since the October 21 high.

USDCHF completes another lap. Tests low from October 27

What now?

Needless to say a move below the 0.98408 level will break that symmetry, and have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint of the move up from the September low. That level comes in at 0.9813. Break below the 50% midpoint and it opens the door for further selling momentum in the pair.

Conversely, if the symmetry is to remain, a move back toward the broken 38.2% retracement on the chart above at 0.98919 be a target area. The broken trend line starting from the September 30 low is also near that area. Moving above that moving above that area would weaken the bearish technical bias.

Drilling down to the 5 minute chart, the price of the USDCHF consolidated between 0.98747 and 0.9924 since the London session yesterday and the most recent break lower today in the US session. The 38.2% retracement of the move down today comes in near the low of that swing area. Moving back above 0.9874 and then the 50% of the move down today at 0.9884 would also tilt the bias more to the upside in the short-term.

USDCHF breaks lower..

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