Yesterday, the USDCAD moved sharply lower despite the fact that oil prices were tumbling to the downside. Below is the post on the pair. Here is the link: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/oil-is-down-350-but-usdcad-is-lower-by-134-20230104/
Maybe the move to the downside (higher CAD
CAD
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and at the time of writing is the fifth most-held reserve currency in the world behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. At the time of writing, the CAD accounts for 2% of all global currency reserves.Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty, and historic stability.Originally introduced in 1858, the CAD has since its inception maintained a strong tie to the US dollar.This is due to the high degree of trade between the two countries, with the United States receiving the vast majority of Canadian exports, with Canada in turn importing over half of its goods from its southern neighbor. For brief periods of time the CAD has been fixed to the US dollar over its history. Presently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is responsible for intervening to maintain the value of the currency.What Factors Affect the CAD?Forex traders tune into a variety of factors and metrics when trading the CAD. The value of the CAD is strongly correlated to the strength of global commodity prices such as oil.As a producer and exporter of oil and other commodities, Canada benefits from stronger crude oil prices. When commodity prices rise, Canada’s terms of trade also generally improve, and vice versa.Furthermore, a number of domestic factors can also influence the CAD. This includes interest rates set by the BoC, domestic inflation rates, trade surpluses, and foreign investment & direct payments.
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and at the time of writing is the fifth most-held reserve currency in the world behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. At the time of writing, the CAD accounts for 2% of all global currency reserves.Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty, and historic stability.Originally introduced in 1858, the CAD has since its inception maintained a strong tie to the US dollar.This is due to the high degree of trade between the two countries, with the United States receiving the vast majority of Canadian exports, with Canada in turn importing over half of its goods from its southern neighbor. For brief periods of time the CAD has been fixed to the US dollar over its history. Presently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is responsible for intervening to maintain the value of the currency.What Factors Affect the CAD?Forex traders tune into a variety of factors and metrics when trading the CAD. The value of the CAD is strongly correlated to the strength of global commodity prices such as oil.As a producer and exporter of oil and other commodities, Canada benefits from stronger crude oil prices. When commodity prices rise, Canada’s terms of trade also generally improve, and vice versa.Furthermore, a number of domestic factors can also influence the CAD. This includes interest rates set by the BoC, domestic inflation rates, trade surpluses, and foreign investment & direct payments. Read this Term) was off the AUD
AUD
The Australian dollar (AUD) is the official currency of Australia, which is also used in Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Norfolk Island, as well as independent pacific states.Introduced in 1966, the AUD is currently the fifth most traded currency in the world, behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The currency is very important to forex markets and is routinely used as a carry trade against other majors.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the central banking authority tasked with the management and issuance of AUD banknotes.What Factors Affect the AUD?The AUD is more susceptible than other currencies to macroeconomic factors. Overall, monetary policy is the largest mover of the currency, including interest rate differentials.Beyond Australia, commodity prices such as those of precious metals and others are also important to the AUD and can cause fluctuations in its value relative to other currencies.Global risk sentiment and confidence are also indicators that are closely tracked given their correlation to the AUD.This is due to the AUD being seen as a commodity currency, and also used as one of the most popular growth and risk proxies in global financial markets.Any positive mood in the global market will likely cause the AUD to climb, while if there is a prevailing pessimism, the AUD will often decline.On a domestic scale, government credit ratings can also impact the AUD. Australia’s credit rating influences the risk profile of its debt.This trend directly influences the cost the government has to pay on the debt it owes.
The Australian dollar (AUD) is the official currency of Australia, which is also used in Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Norfolk Island, as well as independent pacific states.Introduced in 1966, the AUD is currently the fifth most traded currency in the world, behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The currency is very important to forex markets and is routinely used as a carry trade against other majors.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the central banking authority tasked with the management and issuance of AUD banknotes.What Factors Affect the AUD?The AUD is more susceptible than other currencies to macroeconomic factors. Overall, monetary policy is the largest mover of the currency, including interest rate differentials.Beyond Australia, commodity prices such as those of precious metals and others are also important to the AUD and can cause fluctuations in its value relative to other currencies.Global risk sentiment and confidence are also indicators that are closely tracked given their correlation to the AUD.This is due to the AUD being seen as a commodity currency, and also used as one of the most popular growth and risk proxies in global financial markets.Any positive mood in the global market will likely cause the AUD to climb, while if there is a prevailing pessimism, the AUD will often decline.On a domestic scale, government credit ratings can also impact the AUD. Australia’s credit rating influences the risk profile of its debt.This trend directly influences the cost the government has to pay on the debt it owes. Read this Term strength. Remember it moved higher on the fundamental story that China would look to import more coal. Rise from the association of being a commodity currency.
What we know today, is the price stretched down in the first hours of trading in the Asian session, reached to 1.3469, which was within 7-8 pips of the 100 day MA, and the buyers said “that was enough”.
The price started to move back to the upside.
Looking at the daily chart below, back in November, with the price coming off the October high, the price also tested the 100 day MA over 4 consecutive days. ON two of those days, the price moved below but quickly reversed higher.
What now?
Looking at the hourly chart, the rebound off of the 100 day MA took the price back above the 100/200 hour MAs (blue and green lines on the chart below), that is near the middle of the up and down trading range since the start of the December. Those MAs are near converged at 1.3563. The price is trading at 1.3572, after the dip took the price to 1.35465.
The 100/200 hour MAs are now the close barometer for bullish and bearish. The buyers have the edge now with the price above the MA levels. The sellers did try to wrestle back control but they failed on the last dip. Traders looking for more upside will now want to see that level not only hold, but for the price to move higher and away.
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