After the dollar selling that took the pair below 140.00, we haven’t seen an extended drop just yet even as price continues to keep below its 100-day moving average (red line):
The lack of drive to the downside is helped by the fact that the dollar is starting to put up more of a fight as broader market sentiment hints that the relief rally momentum is stalling.
But as long as price keeps below the 100-day moving average, now seen at 140.94, then sellers will still hold a slight edge for the time being. Looking at the near-term chart:
You can see easily see how price is very much consolidating as the rally in bonds also start to seize up a little on the week.
The 100-hour moving average (red line) at 139.77 is a key near-term level to watch for now. Keep above that and the near-term bias remains more neutral but break below and the bias turns more bearish. However, sellers will need to go for a break below 138.45 and preferably below 138.00 to really chase the next downside leg.
As things stand, both buyers and sellers will have to rely much on bond market sentiment for the next move.