Technical Analysis

US S&P Global services PMI 44.4 vs 46.8 expected

Adam Button

Adam Button

Friday, 16/12/2022 | 14:45 GMT-0

16/12/2022 | 14:45 GMT-0

  • Prior was 46.2
  • Manufacturing 46.2 vs 47.7 expected
  • Composite 44.6 vs 47.0 expected

This report has diverged with the ISM services data, which has remained stronger. The four month decline in services has been the most-rapid since 2009 and led by a further decrease in new orders. The report also said “iInflationary pressures in the service sector cooled notably
in December” which is an area that Powell highlighted.

Commenting on the US flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“Business conditions are worsening as 2022 draws to a close, with a steep fall in the PMI indicative of GDP contracting in the fourth quarter at an annualised rate of around 1.5%. Jobs growth has meanwhile slowed to a crawl as firms across both manufacturing and services take a much more cautious approach to hiring amid the slump in customer demand.

“The upside is that weaker demand has taken pressure off supply chains which had been stretched during the pandemic. December saw a second successive month of faster supplier delivery times, a phenomenon which not only signals improving supply conditions but also tends to herald the shifting of pricing power away from the seller towards the buyer.

“Hence price pressures continue to moderate sharply. In fact, December saw the largest monthly cooling of firms’ input cost inflation seen in the 13 year history of the survey barring only the lockdown related slump in April 2020.

“In short, the survey data suggest that Fed rate hikes are having the desired effect on inflation , but that the economic cost is building and recession risks are consequently mounting.”

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