Technical Analysis

US November non-farm payrolls +263K vs +200K expected

  • Prior was +200K
  • Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.7% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
  • Participation rate 62.1% vs 62.2% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)
  • U6 underemployment rate 6.7% vs 6.8% prior
  • Average hourly earnings +0.6% m/m vs +0.3% expected (prior +0.4%, revised to +0.5%)
  • Average hourly earnings +5.1% y/y vs +4.6% expected (prior +4.7%)
  • Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.5 expected
  • Change in private payrolls +221K vs +190K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls +14K vs +20K expected
  • Household survey -186K vs -306K prior
  • Full report

USD/JPY was trading at 134.06 just before the data and has shot to 135.83 afterwards as part of a broad USD rebound. The wages number is a concern and could stoke second-round effects on inflation .

The terminal Fed funds top has moved up to 4.97% from 4.90% yesterday.

I worry about those household numbers, which were a big contrast to the establishment survey for the second month.

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