The key focus in markets today is on the US jobs report later but with regards to the Fed outlook, this is very much just the appetizer. Sure, labour market conditions are vital in reaffirming the Fed’s hawkish nod but the main course is still inflation numbers and we will only get that via the CPI data next week.
We’re still at a point where the playbook to the non-farm payrolls is rather straightforward, that being bad news is good news; vice versa. A hot report later will vindicate Powell’s hawkish remarks this week while a softer report will take some edge of that.
The dollar is weaker so far today and is holding on the softer side as equities are pushing higher in the run up to the data. In part, one can argue that markets are hopeful that we are moving somewhat towards a reopening trade with regards to China but it also looks like a bit part retracement to the post-Fed reaction.
In any case, the jobs report later will be one to dictate proceedings before the weekend so let’s see what that has to offer later today.