Technical Analysis

US headed for an extremely-cold Christmas and it will put a damper on holiday spending

Natural gas traders have been carefully watching emerging forecasts that show a brutally-cold Christmas in much of the US but I think the broader market will soon tune in.

Here’s a composite of the major weather models from and it highlights what is coming.

The peak of the cold is set to hit right on Christmas day but it’s Boxing Day and the few days afterwards that could be meaningful for retailers.

With forecasts east of the Rocky mountains set to be 10-20ºF below normal, that will keep people bundled up at home rather than waiting in line for some of the best deals of the year. Retailers are already heavy on inventory so the lack of buying could lead to further discounts later.

With this, there’s a growing likelihood that December retail sales will be soft and that could confirm views of a slowdown, though the strength of the slowdown might be overstated because of the weather.

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