Technical Analysis

US futures slightly higher for now, all eyes on US CPI data


The optimists are feeling a bit more upbeat now as we look towards North America trading, with US futures nudging higher in a more positive risk tilt – at least for the time being. Nothing is set in stone though, especially since we’re all waiting on the US CPI data that is to come later at 1330 GMT.

Here’s a look at how the S&P 500 has performed in each of the last four editions of the CPI data (the report covers the figures for the month prior):

  • August: +2.1%
  • September: -4.3%
  • October: +2.6%
  • November: +5.5%

Those are volatile moves and one can expect more of the same again later today. It is an especially important time for equities especially after the rally since last month, as it faces key technical challenges on the chart:

The bottom came after the October release (for the month of September) of the US CPI data and the rebound finally stalled at key trendline resistance from the downtrend this year (white line). Since then, a retreat in stocks has only resulted in a test of the 100-day moving average (red line) and so the risk lines are quite clearly drawn up ahead of the big events this week.

A break above the key trendline resistance will give room for the S&P 500 to rally back towards its August high at 4,325 while a break below the 100-day moving average will pose a major setback to buyers in a potential fall back towards the November low at 3,698 for starters.

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