Technical Analysis

US dollar takes a tumble. Intervention or Timiraos?

The US dollar has reversed course.

I’m sure the initial move was on the release of an article from WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos that highlighted a 50 bps hike in December but this move is too big for that alone. I mean, it’s certainly a crowded trade but EUR/USD is now up 80 pips from the lows and USD/CAD is down a full cent.

What’s going on here?

Could Japanese officials be intervening at the same time? With USD/JPY up 13 straight days and at session highs, it would have been a good time to do it. The arrow shows when the article landed.

The thing is, the move in USD/JPY is arguably the smallest of the major dollar moves. It’s down around 50 pips with bigger moves elsewhere. Now that might represent the push-and-pull with equities and the broader risk trade so I can’t rule out JPY intervention but you would have think they would come a bit harder.

In all, these are certainly some strange moves, because I don’t think the Timiraos article signaled all that much.

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button