Technical Analysis

US dollar falls further after blockbuster 30-year bond reopening

I think the Bank of Japan is a much bigger factor in today’s trading than CPI.

The fresh hints overnight that the BOJ is getting ready to abandon yield curve control as soon as next week’s meeting sparked a surge in the yen. My strong suspicion is that Japanese bonds are being dumped in favor of Treasuries wherever possible.

That’s put a big bid into US fixed income today with yields down 8-13 bps across the curve.

Certainly there’s some help from CPI and the dwindling odds of a 50 bps hike on Feb 1 but there’s something of a feedback loop that’s been created by the bond buying. It’s meant USD selling and bids in equities.

At the same time, the headwinds in Europe are fading as TTF prices fall (though they’re still 2x more than they were two years ago) and European consumers hold up. The valuation trade is also in full swing with money shifting from US dollars to Europe, China and emerging markets.

In any case, these are the kind of intraday moves that send FX traders to early graves.

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