Technical Analysis
US CPI report coming up on Thursday – “likely to be another hot one”. Preview.
US October inflation data, CPI, is due at 1330 GMT.
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This
snapshot below is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access
it here. -
The
times in the left-most column are GMT. -
The
numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous
month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column
next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median
expected.
Snippet preview via Scotia:
CPI for October kicks … it’s likely to be another hot one.
this could be the eleventh time in the past thirteen months that core CPI will have posted month-over-month seasonally adjusted gains of 0.5% or more
Among the expected drivers are the following factors:
- If nothing else changed other than year-ago base effects then the rate of inflation would ebb from 8.2% y/y in September to 7.3% in October. It’s vital to look through this toward the incremental price pressures in month-over-month seasonally adjusted and annualized terms.
- October tends to be a seasonal up-month for unadjusted prices as input into the year-over-year rate.
- Gas prices pushed higher by an estimated 3.7% m/m NSA which is more than is seasonally normal
- Natural gas prices fell sharply … but a) it doesn’t all flow through CPI in a single month, b) there are other fuels in that category, and c) there is only a 1% weight attached to it.
- Used vehicle prices declined a bit, but the modest 4% weight
- New vehicle prices were very little changed
- Food retail prices are expected to remain hot
- Shelter costs … will probably remain hot
