Technical Analysis

US CPI report coming up on Thursday – “likely to be another hot one”. Preview.

US October inflation data, CPI, is due at 1330 GMT.

  • This
    snapshot below is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access
    it here
  • The
    times in the left-most column are GMT.
  • The
    numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous
    month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column
    next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median

Snippet preview via Scotia:

CPI for October kicks … it’s likely to be another hot one.

this could be the eleventh time in the past thirteen months that core CPI will have posted month-over-month seasonally adjusted gains of 0.5% or more

Among the expected drivers are the following factors:

  • If nothing else changed other than year-ago base effects then the rate of inflation would ebb from 8.2% y/y in September to 7.3% in October. It’s vital to look through this toward the incremental price pressures in month-over-month seasonally adjusted and annualized terms.
  • October tends to be a seasonal up-month for unadjusted prices as input into the year-over-year rate.
  • Gas prices pushed higher by an estimated 3.7% m/m NSA which is more than is seasonally normal
  • Natural gas prices fell sharply … but a) it doesn’t all flow through CPI in a single month, b) there are other fuels in that category, and c) there is only a 1% weight attached to it.
  • Used vehicle prices declined a bit, but the modest 4% weight
  • New vehicle prices were very little changed
  • Food retail prices are expected to remain hot
  • Shelter costs … will probably remain hot

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