Technical Analysis

UMich US December prelim consumer sentiment 59.1 vs 56.9 expected

  • Prior was 54.7
  • Current conditions 60.2 vs 58.0 exp
  • Expectations 58.4 vs 56.0 exp
  • One-year inflation 4.6% vs 4.9% prior
  • Five-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prior

I’m not a fan of this report. It’s nothing more than a Presidential approval poll combined with sentiment around gas prices. I’m not surprised it’s jumped after people had a chance too cool off following the mid-terms but the headline doesn’t tell you anything about the state of the consumer. Despite today’s beat, it’s still below 2009 levels.

What is interesting is the fall in one-year inflation expectations, which is the lowest since Sept 2021. If you can remember back to the summer, the Fed hit the panic button on the prelim 1-year inflation number only for it to be revised back down. That said,this isn’t the first month of topping inflation expectations, which will give the Fed a lot of comfort.

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