Technical Analysis

UK November CPI +10.7% vs +10.9% y/y expected

  • Prior +11.1%
  • CPI +0.4% vs +0.6% m/m expected
  • Prior +2.0%
  • Core CPI +6.3% vs +6.5% y/y expected
  • Prior +6.5%
  • Core CPI +0.3% vs +0.5% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.7%

The more-than-expected drop in UK inflation is a welcome development but relative to historical prices, this is still a very high reading as it comes off the over 11% reading in the October report. Here is a breakdown of the details:

Of note, transport provided the largest downward contribution to the change in the annual inflation rate, mainly due to motor fuels as energy prices fall off.

In terms of BOE pricing for tomorrow, I don’t see the report today as being material enough to alter expectations of a 50 bps move.

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