Technical Analysis

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike cash rate by 25bp next week

Via Reuters poll of 32 analysts ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia November 1 meeting.

  • 28 of 32 said the RBA would hike its cash rate by 25 bps to 2.85%
  • the remaining four forecast a 50 bp rise

NAB comments on the higher than expected CPI rate reported earlier this week:

  • “In these circumstances, the RBA will need to move monetary policy into more clearly restrictive territory to ensure inflation returns to target,”
  • added that while the strength of inflation meant the board would likely debate the possibility of a 50 bp hike, “we see a 25 bp hike as being slightly more probable given recent communications”.

ANZ, CBA and NAB expect a 25 bp hike on Tuesday, while Westpac predicted a 50 bp rise.

More from the poll report:

  • 30 of 32, predicted another 25 bp hike at the RBA’s December meeting
  • 16 of 31 now expect rates to reach 3.60% or higher by end-June 2023, a quarter point higher than predicted in an October poll

The RBA hiking cycle so far:

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