Technical Analysis

SNB to raise key policy rate by 50 bps this week – Reuters poll


  • 18 of 28 economists see a 50 bps rate hike
  • 9 of 28 economists see a 75 bps rate hike

Some views from UBS and Citi on the upcoming Swiss central bank meeting:

“In our view, the SNB will not know the outcome of the ECB meeting beforehand and may not want to risk the rate differential becoming too wide, also given the ECB could surprise with a larger hike. Also, if in doubt, we think the SNB would rather opt for the more hawkish choice.” — Felix Huefner, UBS senior European economist

“The slowing economy, falling energy prices but also the shift in emphasis to balance sheet reduction speak against big rate hikes. However, interest rate differentials are already historically wide with fewer meetings available, the SNB has to make bigger steps to keep up. That is why we stick with our call for a 75 bps rate hike to 1.25%.” — Christian Schulz, Citi economist

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