Technical Analysis

San Fran Fed says its developed a US recession indicator more accurate at shorter horizons

From the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  • Says the researcher has found a recession predictor based on macroeconomic time series, particularly the jobless unemployment rate.
  • This predictor is almost as accurate as the slope of the yield curve but is more accurate at shorter horizons.

If you are just after a recession prediction, the paper’s conclusion is that there is no US recession on the horizon:

  • The jobless rate does not currently signal an impending recession, nor do other macroeconomic time series analyzed using the same methodology.
  • In general, however, examining these series suggests that the business cycle is at a maturing stage when expansions typically come to an end.

Here is the link to the article if you are interested in more (holiday reading!).

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button