Technical Analysis

Putin bans the supply of oil and oil products to nations that imposed the oil price cap

Putin signed a decree that bans the sale of Russian oil to countries who imposed the oil price cap. It begins Feb 1, 2023 and continues until July 1, though Feb 1 won’t necessarily be the date for oil products.

(Update: I’m told this only bans contracts that use the floor language, not necessarily oil exports to the countries that have formal bans.)

This was rumored so it’s not a big surprise. Oil is higher today after Russia talked about falling production this year as it adjusts to sanctions and the ban. WTI crude oil is up $1.24 to $80.81.

I see this as a soft response compared to some of the options that were floated like a price floor. It’s also far less aggressive than the natural gas moves Russia made. That may speak to sensitivity around exports and the need for cash, or some other unknown strategy.

What’s interesting are the oil products and that could cause problems in Europe, particularly in eastern Europe.

Meanwhile, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev got some attention late yesterday with a series of wild predictions on twitter that even drew in Elon Musk. One of them was that oil will hit $150. However, I don’t think most people realized that the whole thing was a joke to poke at those who are predicting a collapse of Russia.

Putin’s decree

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