Technical Analysis

Powell Q&A: The ultimate top in rates is ‘very uncertain’

  • Comments in response to questions from reporters
Adam Button

Adam Button

Wednesday, 02/11/2022 | 18:42 GMT-0

02/11/2022 | 18:42 GMT-0

  • We’ve moved 3.75 percentage points since March
  • We’re saying we will hike to a level that’s sufficiently restrictive to tame inflation over time
  • We think there’s some ground to cover, and cover it we will
  • The ultimate top is ‘very uncertain’ but CPI and labor data suggests to me it will be higher than previously throught
  • The time to slow the pace of hikes could be at the next meeting or the one after that. It will be discussed at the next meeting
  • I’m pleased we’ve moved as fast as we have.
  • I don’t think we’ve overtightened
  • We had a discussion at this meeting about slowing rate hikes
  • Long term inflation expectations have moved back down
  • We don’t have a clearly-identified way of knowing when inflation becomes entrenched
  • We don’t have a lot of data on how quickly rate hikes hit an economy in a modern economy
  • If we were to over-tighten, we could use our tools to support the economy
  • “We have a ways to go” on rates

The comment that “we have a ways to go” on rates is different (at least for me) then “some ground to cover”. The line “some ground to cover” was likely scripted because he said it a couple times at the start. But then he dropped “we have a ways to go” and that kicked off a fresh reversal in the dollar right back to pre-FOMC levels.

The terminal rate was at 5.03% before the FOMC then fell to 4.93% on the statement but now it’s up to 5.07%.

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