Technical Analysis

Other markets aren’t confirming the move in equities

The S&P 500 is up 2.1% and the Nasdaq up 2.5%, both session highs.

This looks an awfully lot like a stocks-only short squeeze. I could get behind the move if Treasury yields or the US dollar were falling but it’s the opposite. US 10-year yields are up 6.7 bps today to 4.01% and the dollar is trailing only sterling. Copper is also down 2.3%, highlighting weakening global growth.

On the economic data front, today’s PCE data was inline with estimates but that’s hardly a reason for celebration while pending home sales cratered. Even in stock markets the move looks curious with Amazon down 8%.

The thing about squeezes is that they can last awhile. The challenge for stocks right now is whether the S&P 500 can close above the October high. There’s a growing belief that Republicans will at least split Congress and equity bulls like that, plus November is a strong time seasonally for stocks.

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