Technical Analysis

Odds that Democrats hold onto the Senate surge as the votes trickle in

Republicans are still highly likely to take the House so it’s not hugely consequential what happens in the Senate — at least not for the next two years — but a red wave is looking increasingly unlikely.

Earlier today, Predictit had the Senate at 82% likely to go to Republicans. That’s now down to 39% as the results begin to come in. One place that’s looking particularly strong for Democrats is Pennsylvania, where Dr. Oz was in a toss-up race for a seat that was held by a retiring Republican.

Georgia looks like it’s headed to a run-off in December so control might not be decided until then.

The other one to watch is in Nevada, which polls showed the Republican ahead but Predictit now shows a slight Democrat lead. Those numbers are just beginning to trickle in.

The highly unlikely event today would be Democrats holding the House and the stock market would not like that. There have already been at least 3 seats flipped to Republicans and they only need a net 5. In any case, Predictit has Dems with a 19% chance, up from 8% earlier.

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