Technical Analysis

October is proving to be one of the best months in US stock market history

At the start of the month, I highlighted horrible equity market sentiment and positive seasonals in October as a reason to be optimistic. But if you told me that shares of Amazon and Meta would be blown up, I would never have predicted it would be one of the best months for equities in history.

Bespoke notes that at 13.6%, the current monthly gain in the Dow would be the 12th best in records dating back to 1915. With Monday’s trade still to come, the index needs to gain just another 0.8% to pas the best months in the 70s and 80s. That would take us back all the way to 1938.

Now for the bad news: As I’ve noted many times here, bear market rallies are often the most-powerful. The snap higher lately highlights that this is probably another bear market rally and with that, I’d be watching the technical levels closely. The S&P 500 stalled precisely at the 200-day moving average in the July-August bear-market rally so that’s a spot to watch.

What’s interesting, since we’re talking about the Dow here, is that it’s right at the 200-dma.

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