NZIER is the new Zealand Institute of Economic Research. Their latest pub;location is:
Text at that link, but in summary:
- Inflation pressures remain intense in the New Zealand economy
- “a substantial proportion of mortgages are due for repricing over the coming year. As these households roll off historically low fixed mortgage rates onto significantly higher rates, the impact of higher interest rates will become more apparent as households adjust their spending in the face of higher mortgage repayments
- “That is largely a story for later in 2023 …
- “This lagged nature of when higher interest rates start to materially impact households and the broader economy heightens the risk of the Reserve Bank over-correcting when conducting monetary policy.
- “We expect the negative impact of higher interest rates on demand will become more apparent around mid-2023, such that the Reserve Bank will not need to increase interest rates by as much as it currently expects to. Nonetheless, we expect further increases in the OCR and for it to peak at 5 percent over the coming year.”
I posted earlier on the RBNZ:
The RBNZ next meet 22 February 2023.
Pic below from the previous meeting date when the Bank hiked by a record high +75bp: