Technical Analysis

NZDUSD closing week with the 2020 low in its sights

NZDUSD on the weekly chart

The NZDUSD fell to the lowest level in 2022 this week at 0.5510. That is within 44 pips of the 2020 swing low at 0.54668. The price is currently at 0.5558 about 108 pips from the 2020 low all-time low. The 2020 low is the lowest level since March 2009.

Looking at the weekly chart, the price is trading below the swing low from 2 weeks ago at 0.5564 is also below the low going back to the week of March 22 at 0.55829. Off the weekly chart the price next week and stay below 0.55829, the sellers are remain in control with the low from 2020 and is the next major downside target.

Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price low this week reached after the CPI data move down to test a lower trendline connecting recent lows. The price dipped briefly below that line but quickly bounce back to the upside. That trendline cuts across near the 0.5504 level going into the weekend (and moving lower). In next week’s trading, it would represent day interim level ahead of the 2020 low at 0.5468.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price today fell back below its 100 hour moving average at 0.55998 (call it 0.5600). That moving average will be a bias defining level along with the 200 hour moving average at 0.56397 in the new trading week. Stay below and the sellers remain in control. Move above and there is room to roam to the upside.

NZDUSD traded mostly within the lower trading range

For the trading week- and really going back to last Friday, the price action spent most the time between 0.55346 and 0.56728. On the CPI day on Thursday, the price fell below the lower extreme. In trading today, the price briefly moved above the upper extreme. However each break was short-lived. In the new trading week getting below and staying below 0.55346 should increase the bearish bias if the price can stay below.

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