Today’s Canadian dollar’s decline was ultra-curious given:
Canadian GDP today was strong at 2.9% vs 1.5% expected
Oil is higher today
AUD and NZD are each up 0.5% today
Stocks are only down modestly (and were flat when the loonie was dumping)
I highlighted that it was curious as it kicked off and probably flow-driven. Well here are the flows: Canadian bank RBC is buying HSBC’s Canadian operations for C$13.5 billion.
I saw this headline earlier and didn’t connect the dots (shame on me) but it all makes sense now. The deal hedging was put on almost immediately after the deal was announced early in Toronto hours and the CAD-selling stopped when London closed.
Even on the strong Canadian GDP print, there was a 15 pip drop and it looks like someone sold heavily into that, which is exactly the kind of liquidity
Liquidity
Liquidity refers to the extent of a financial instrument’s ability to be bought or sold without causing price fluctuations. Thus, if an asset is extremely liquid, it means one can trade that asset in the knowledge that one’s specific dealing won’t create significant movements in the market.This is because there exists such a large number of traders going both long and short, generating huge volume for that particular asset. Liquidity in the FX MarketTake the example of the foreign exchange market – it is the world’s most liquid market, since numerous banks, hedge funds and individual traders partake in the buying and selling of vast cumulative amounts currencies every single day. In fact, over $5 trillion is exchanged daily, as mentioned by the Bank of International Settlements. If a trader wants to go long on the currency pair EUR/USD, they will have no trouble in finding traders wanting to go the opposite way, due to such ample liquidity. The EUR/USD is the world’s most liquid trading instrument, in any market. It is extremely easily bought or sold, with an immense quantity of trading activity for the pair. Liquidity reflects the quantity and the frequency of the asset that’s being traded, i.e. the more an asset is traded, the more liquid that asset is, making it virtually effortless for the asset to be bought and sold.Likewise, the less an asset is traded, generally the less liquid the asset is, making it more difficult for that asset to be bought or sold. It goes without saying that liquidity is one of the key attributes a trader looks for, when deciding on whether to pursue trading an instrument, since it tells the trader how stable a market is despite masses of trades being undertaken. This is exactly why the forex market is so enticing, since its liquid environment allows massive trading volumes to occur without much effect on the currency pairs’ exchange rates.
Liquidity refers to the extent of a financial instrument’s ability to be bought or sold without causing price fluctuations. Thus, if an asset is extremely liquid, it means one can trade that asset in the knowledge that one’s specific dealing won’t create significant movements in the market.This is because there exists such a large number of traders going both long and short, generating huge volume for that particular asset. Liquidity in the FX MarketTake the example of the foreign exchange market – it is the world’s most liquid market, since numerous banks, hedge funds and individual traders partake in the buying and selling of vast cumulative amounts currencies every single day. In fact, over $5 trillion is exchanged daily, as mentioned by the Bank of International Settlements. If a trader wants to go long on the currency pair EUR/USD, they will have no trouble in finding traders wanting to go the opposite way, due to such ample liquidity. The EUR/USD is the world’s most liquid trading instrument, in any market. It is extremely easily bought or sold, with an immense quantity of trading activity for the pair. Liquidity reflects the quantity and the frequency of the asset that’s being traded, i.e. the more an asset is traded, the more liquid that asset is, making it virtually effortless for the asset to be bought and sold.Likewise, the less an asset is traded, generally the less liquid the asset is, making it more difficult for that asset to be bought or sold. It goes without saying that liquidity is one of the key attributes a trader looks for, when deciding on whether to pursue trading an instrument, since it tells the trader how stable a market is despite masses of trades being undertaken. This is exactly why the forex market is so enticing, since its liquid environment allows massive trading volumes to occur without much effect on the currency pairs’ exchange rates. Read this Term the CAD
CAD
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and at the time of writing is the fifth most-held reserve currency in the world behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. At the time of writing, the CAD accounts for 2% of all global currency reserves.Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty, and historic stability.Originally introduced in 1858, the CAD has since its inception maintained a strong tie to the US dollar.This is due to the high degree of trade between the two countries, with the United States receiving the vast majority of Canadian exports, with Canada in turn importing over half of its goods from its southern neighbor. For brief periods of time the CAD has been fixed to the US dollar over its history. Presently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is responsible for intervening to maintain the value of the currency.What Factors Affect the CAD?Forex traders tune into a variety of factors and metrics when trading the CAD. The value of the CAD is strongly correlated to the strength of global commodity prices such as oil.As a producer and exporter of oil and other commodities, Canada benefits from stronger crude oil prices. When commodity prices rise, Canada’s terms of trade also generally improve, and vice versa.Furthermore, a number of domestic factors can also influence the CAD. This includes interest rates set by the BoC, domestic inflation rates, trade surpluses, and foreign investment & direct payments.
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and at the time of writing is the fifth most-held reserve currency in the world behind only the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. At the time of writing, the CAD accounts for 2% of all global currency reserves.Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty, and historic stability.Originally introduced in 1858, the CAD has since its inception maintained a strong tie to the US dollar.This is due to the high degree of trade between the two countries, with the United States receiving the vast majority of Canadian exports, with Canada in turn importing over half of its goods from its southern neighbor. For brief periods of time the CAD has been fixed to the US dollar over its history. Presently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is responsible for intervening to maintain the value of the currency.What Factors Affect the CAD?Forex traders tune into a variety of factors and metrics when trading the CAD. The value of the CAD is strongly correlated to the strength of global commodity prices such as oil.As a producer and exporter of oil and other commodities, Canada benefits from stronger crude oil prices. When commodity prices rise, Canada’s terms of trade also generally improve, and vice versa.Furthermore, a number of domestic factors can also influence the CAD. This includes interest rates set by the BoC, domestic inflation rates, trade surpluses, and foreign investment & direct payments. Read this Term-sellers would be looking for.
So the question now is: Can CAD continue to retrace?
If you just take AUD and NZD, I think this pair could fall 1%. Maybe discount that slightly because of AUD and NZD torque to China and the optimism on lockdowns there but that still leaves plenty of room for a loonie recovery. Moreover, oil is hanging in nicely today today despite hopes for an OPEC+ cut getting buried.
There will be some cross-currents with Powell tomorrow and a heavy data slate but all else equal, I’d expect a fall back to 1.3500.
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