Technical Analysis

Now is a great time for a bad headline to mess with the market — like the oil market

A headline is making the rounds — from a major newswire — saying something like ‘Iraq says OPEC+ plans to cut output by 2 mbpd this month’.

That put some life into oil because algos are stupid and oil traders aren’t much better.

The problem is that the headline needs to be translated.

First of all, OPEC+ meets next month in December. But that meeting is for Jan/Feb production quotas.

The October meeting was for this month and they already cut quotas by 2 mbpd. So all Iraq is doing is affirming what OPEC announced eight weeks ago but hasn’t yet competed, since we’re not even at the end of the first month of cuts.

November (this month) is the first month of the 2 mbpd quota decrease.

With the big World Cup matches starting, expect more funny business in markets.

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