Technical Analysis

Not quite the 2022 theme this one

For large parts of 2022, the theme in markets was to buy the dollar, sell everything else. And as we got closer towards year-end and the increasing likelihood of a Fed pivot, it was the other way around as the tables turned.

But to kick start the new year, stocks and bonds are bid today but that is somehow translating to a higher dollar as flows win out instead of the prevailing narrative that we have been so accustomed to last year. Here’s a snapshot of broader markets:

  • Eurostoxx +1.4%
  • Germany DAX +1.3%
  • France CAC 40 +1.2%
  • UK FTSE +2.0%
  • S&P 500 futures +0.9%
  • Nasdaq futures +0.9%
  • Dow futures +0.8%
  • 10-year Treasury yields down 8.7 bps to 3.745%
  • 10-year German bond yields down 8.2 bps to 2.357%
  • 10-year Italy bond yields down 10.5 bps to 4.447%

On any other day in the final two months of last year, this would’ve been a more risk on sort of day. But not today, as the dollar and yen are running rampant across the board with the greenback notably picking up a strong bid in European morning trade.

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