Posting this with the caveat that, and no offence to Nomura, anyone thinking they know what’s going on in China’s Politburo is likely to be overconfident.
Anyway, snippet via Nomura on the speculation of Xi relaxing his zero COVID policy around March next year. This was the social media scuttlebutt earlier this week.
- If Beijing decides to move slowly toward “living with Covid,” that would prove a significant disappointment, weighing on investment and consumer demand, a difficult period after March 2023 appears unavoidable.
- But if Beijing takes material steps towards ditching Covid Zero, then the infection rate will very likely surge in a short period of time.
- Regarding the recent speculation about relaxing pandemic measures, any positive impact from the specific steps mentioned may be very limited.
China stock update, surging again today: