You would think after the best two-day stretch for stocks in years there would be some back-and-fill today in markets, especially after the Fed’s Waller poured a bit of cold water on the thesis.
Instead, the US dollar is flat today on most fronts. The Nasdaq is now back to unchanged as well.
The bulls have to feel good about this. The next hurdles are going to be economic data and whether there’s just enough of a slowdown to boost hopes for a soft landing. US retail sales on Wednesday will be a big one and the consensus is +0.8% but ex-autos and gas at +0.2%.
Numbers close to consensus are probably the best scenario for the market, or with a slight negative bent. If they’re too hot it will bring rate hikes back into play and if they’re too cold it will stoke worry about a harsh recession.