Technical Analysis

Macklem: This is a conditional pause, dependent on economy developing as forecast


  • Economic growth and spending in H2 were stronger than forecast
  • Economy didn’t cool as much as expected in H2
  • Lower gasoline prices are welcome but prices of essentials continue to rise too quickly
  • If we need to do more to get inflation to 2% target, we will
  • The full effect of rate hikes is still to be felt
  • Overall we view the risks to inflation as balanced

There haven’t been any surprises so far. The conditional commitment to holding rates is what you would expect.

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