Technical Analysis

Japan MOF reportedly raises assumed long-term interest rate to 1.6% in FY 2026/27

In Japanese circles, that’s a stark contrast to the assumed interest rate of 1.1% set when the government compiled a draft state budget for the coming fiscal year. That’s the same long-term rate used for the budgets in the last six years even if actual borrowing costs have fallen short of said figure. I mean, in the past, the coupon rate on 10-year JGBs were 0.20% before the latest change at the start of this year made it 0.50%.

Is this yet another hint by Japanese officials that a bigger change to policy is coming? The yen isn’t really reacting much to it though with USD/JPY up 0.3% at 128.90. Meanwhile, 10-year JGB yields are still holding above the 0.50% upper limit set out by the BOJ – the third straight session running – on the eve of tomorrow’s policy decision.

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