Technical Analysis

It’s been a choppy week for the dollar, what are the key levels to watch?

If I were to describe it, I’d say that the dollar is on the brink still and that while there are some technical levels being stretched, they aren’t being broken as we look towards the central bank bonanza next week. But even before the end of the week and month-end trading early next week, it is best to take note of some of the key technical developments.

Let’s get straight into it.

EUR/USD is staying on the hunt for a third straight week of gains but buyers are finding it tough to firmly push past 1.0900 for now. Just above that is the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the downswing since 2021, seen at 1.0942 and that remains a key level to watch alongside 1.1000 on any move higher from here.

GBP/USD is keeping slightly lower today below 1.2400 but sellers are holding price below the December highs of 1.2443-46 since last week and that remains the key level to watch for the time being. That makes it two checks now that the dollar is holding alongside the EUR/USD chart above, even if the upside momentum there is more pronounced.

Then, we have AUD/USD which has been a strong performer in January with a push above its 200-day moving average (blue line) and then cracking the 0.7000 mark at the start of this week. That strengthens buyers’ momentum but the latest push seems to be stalling around the August highs of 0.7125-36 for the time being. That is the first technical resistance in play before looking to the May and June highs at 0.7265-83 next.

I’ll count this as half a check for the dollar.

NZD/USD is a tricky one this week as the kiwi isn’t quite following the aussie in terms of a breakout move. The pair has been poking and prodding at the 0.6500 mark since December and also tried a few attempts this week only to fall short. That remains the key level in play and I’d put this as another check for the dollar in terms of holding out against the major currencies on the week.

Next up is USD/CAD, which saw a rejection of its 100-day moving average (red line) last week and while the BOC has moved to the sidelines after their latest rate hike, the technical momentum continues to side with buyers for now. However, the pair remains very much caught between resistance from its 100-day moving average and downside support at the November lows around 1.3225-35 with the 200-day moving average (blue line) also nearby at 1.3205. That defines the technical range for the pair currently.

And then we have USD/JPY, which is keeping just below 130.00 today but continues to trade in a predominantly downtrend as pointed out earlier here.

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