Non-farm payrolls gets all the attention but at this point in the cycle I prefer the ISM services report as a leading indicator on where the economy is headed. That’s particularly true right now as I suspect much of the pent-up demand from the pandemic reopening has been exhausted so we’re going to get more normalized readings.
The consensus this month is 53.3, down from 54.4 prior. There’s no consensus on prices paid but if it doesn’t fall from 70.7 then the Fed should be worried.
That report is out at 10 am ET with factory orders at the same time.
Earlier, we get Canadian building permits at 8:30 am ET and the final services PMI from S&P Global for the US at 9:45 am ET.
The Fed is in the blackout period so that will limit the noise today. Oil is off to strong start after OPEC while weather models are showing a colder winter in Europe.
For more, see the economic calendar.