This is a bit of an ICYMI, a note from HSBC earlier in November.
Analysts at the bank acknowledge that there are ‘headwinds’ persisting but “remain constructive on China and keep our 5.2% growth forecast for 2023”.
HSBC’s base case (in brief):
- One of the key assumptions embedded in our growth forecast is a gradual relaxation of the COVID-19 policy next year. However, any shift would hinge on a few essential conditions, including sufficient vaccination coverage, treatment drug availability, and a global scientific consensus on the pandemic.
- To be clear, we do not expect any major policy shifts in the near term, but we acknowledge China is making steady progress in its vaccination coverage, upgrading its vaccines, as well as medicine development.
- Regarding the housing market, more measures are being rolled out to provide funding and stabilise expectations. We also expect more stimulus policies and better implementation following the recent political reshuffle.