Technical Analysis

Goldman Sachs US CPI data scenarios for the S&P500


JP Morgan with the bait-type headline:

(ps that link has details of the timing and expectations for the CPI data)

Goldman Sachs are a little more restrained, they see gains for the S&P of above 3% if the US CPI comes in under 7%.

More:

  • a reading 7 to 7.3% would see 2 to 3% added to the S&P500
  • from 7.4 to 7.7 sees the S&P drop 1 to 2%
  • above 7.7% sees losses of more than 3%

Goldman Sachs are wary of a big bounce for the S&P citing a lessening of the extreme bearish position that existed during the fall. This has meaningfully unwound in the past month. According to the analyst:

  • “I don’t register this to make a bearish claim — again, the current measure is flat — it’s more to say this magnitude of demand is very unlikely to sustain itself come Q1”

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