Technical Analysis

Goldman Sachs FOMC preview – expect a higher peak rate projection, and larger cuts in 2023

Eamonn Sheridan

This is via the folks at eFX.

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  • Goldman Sachs Research discusses its expectations for tomorrow’s FOMC December policy statement.
  • “Aside from a widely expected 50bp rate hike, the main event at the December FOMC meeting is likely to be an increase in the projected peak for the funds rate in 2023. We expect the median dot to rise 50bp to a new peak of 5-5.25%, in line with our own forecast for Fed policy next year,” GS notes.
  • “Aside from the increase in the terminal rate, we do not expect major changes at the December meeting. At some point the FOMC statement will likely be revised to say that “further” rather than “ongoing” rate hikes are appropriate, but not yet. The economic projections are likely to show a bit less growth next year, but a broadly similar outlook. And the dot plot is likely to show slightly larger cuts beyond 2023 from the new higher peak,” GS adds.

Goldman Sachs looking for something for everyone!

FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference timings:

  • This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
  • The times in the left-most column are GMT.
  • The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

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