Technical Analysis

Goldman Sachs: 3 reasons for a US recession & 4 steps to avoid one

Via Goldman Sachs economists:

We still see a 35% probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months. This is more than double the unconditional probability in any given 12-month period because

  1. inflation is far above target,
  2. the Fed is tightening aggressively,
  3. and we live in an exceptionally uncertain world in terms of both domestic US politics and geopolitics.

However, our 35% recession probability is well below the 60-70% consensus in the latest Wall Street Journal forecaster survey because we still see a very plausible four-step path from the high-inflation economy of the present to a low-inflation economy of the future without a recession.

The steps include

a) bringing growth down to below-trend but positive rates,

b) rebalancing the labor market with only a limited increase in unemployment,

c) reducing wage growth to more sustainable levels,

and d) putting PCE inflation on a path back down to 2%.

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