Technical Analysis

ForexLive Europe/UK FX news wrap: Awaiting US PPI and consumer sentiment data

China will sell 750bn yuan of 3-year special sovereign bonds on Dec 12 to fund stimulus

Announcement crossing wires. Oil is gaining on the headlines, China reopening and stabilising its precarious property sector is expected to boost demand for fuel. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at


ICYMI: Measure of global supply chain performance rose to its long-run average in November

Via S&P Global (the PMI people) comes encouraging news on the Global Suppliers’ Delivery Times Index This is a measure of worldwide supply chain performance. It rose to its long-run average for the first time since before the COVID-19 pandemic in November. Says S&P: “signalling a normalisation of supply-side conditions” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at


BoE UK inflation expectations survey: 4.8% vs. 4.9% prior

Bank of England quarterly survey of inflation expectations. Median public inflation expectation for the coming year 4.8% in November vs 4.9% in August Median public inflation expectation for 1-2 years 3.4% in November vs 3.2% in August Median public inflation expectation for 5 years 3.3% in November vs 3.1% in August Net public satisfaction with Bank of England control of inflation -12 in Novembe


Riksbank’s Jansson – important that inflation is back on target by end ’23 start ’24

Earlier from Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, the central bank of Sweden, Per Jansson. Swedish central bank’s Jansson says prepared to do more if necessary More now: For me it’s important that inflation is back on target at year end 2023, start of 2024 It would be good if in the two upcoming inflation outcomes if we saw signs of a top to underlying inflation Important that price-setting by c


Tesla (TSLA) to reduce output in December by around 30% from November for Model Y

Info crossing news wires on Tesla (TSLA) is to suspend Model Y production at Shanghai Plant between December 25th and January 1st to reduce output in December by around 30% from November for Model Y TSLA have not responded to a request for comment This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at


Taiwan chipmaker TSMC says November net revenue up 50% y/y

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reporting November sales. net revenue of around USD7.28 bn for November net revenue +5.9% from the previous month net revenue +50% for November 2021 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at


OPEC+ crude output fell 700,000 b/d in November, the sharpest drop since April

S&P Platts with the report, in brief: OPEC production falls by 850,000 b/d, Saudi pumps 10.46 million b/d Non-OPEC boosts output by 150,000 b/d led by Kazakhstan, Russia Quota shortfall narrows to 1.89 million b/d from 3.27 million b/d in Oct The link is here for more elaboration. On Russia: Russian oil supply disruptions are seen hitting 1 million b/d between November and March due to the impact


FT says China is starting to under-report coronavirus case and fatality data

The UK’s Financial Times says China is starting to under-report coronavirus case and fatality data, obscuring the scale and severity of the health crisis just as it faces the deadliest phase of the pandemic. Low official case number and death toll puzzle analysts after Beijing lifts Covid testing requirements FT article is here, gated: China’s disappearing data stokes fears of hidden Covid wave T


US moving higher against GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD (yen to a lesser extent, EUR not much changed)

Despite the better news coming out of China on reopening the USD is adding ona few points in Europe/UK morning trade. There is no fresh news apart from what has been posted. Still ahead is the inflation expectations survey from the UK. Markets seem comfortable expecting a 50bp rate hike from the Bank of England next week so I am not sure this data point will move the needle too much. Economic cal


China media hail the effectiveness of Traditional Chinese medicine, TCM, in treating COVID

Tweets from Chinese tabloid Global Times with a boost for TCM and western medicine. China’s rapid u-turn on COVID is leaving many bewildered. Media outlets are toeing the party line of course. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at


Hong Kong stocks had a solid rise on Friday, up over 2%

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index led regional shares today, up circa 2.3% on the day. the Hang Seng Tech Index +2.45% On mainland China’s Shenzhen +0.56% Shanghai Composite +0.3%. CSI 300 +1% A key driver in China is reopening moves. Another is the property sector where there were signs of further fresh support from Chinese state banks for the sector. Sunac China (a developer) laid out restructuring p


The Head and Shoulders Pattern

See the video of the Head and Shoulders pattern checklist, as exemplified on Tesla stock: The head and shoulders pattern is one of the most famous chart patternsin technical analysis . It signals a bearish reversal after an uptrend, and it gives a clear structure for a trading opportunity. As the name suggests, the pattern looks like a head with two shoulders and one should keep in mind that the


Swedish central bank’s Jansson says prepared to do more if necessary

Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank (usually just called Riksbank), the central bank of Sweden, Per Jansson. More: goverment support for electricity customers is not particularly inflationary This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at


Spanish data – industrial output slower in October than in September both m/m and y/y

Spanish data: Industrial Output NSA +2.2% y/y in October vs. prior of +3.6% Industrial Output SA +2.5% in October y/y vs. prior 3.6% Industrial Output in October -0.4% m/m vs. -0.1% prior — NSA = not seasonally adjusted SA = seasonally adjusted — Also, Industrial Output in Austria is slower in October, +3.9% y/y from September’s +6.9% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexli


UK Treasury says it’ll reform short selling regulation

Treasury is making a series of reforms, This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at


Japan PM Kishida says trillion-yen tax hike needed to pay for defense

Japanese media with the report : Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is calling for a tax hike of 1 trillion yen ($7.4 billion) by fiscal 2027 to pay for Japan’s massive defense buildup. Now comes the hard part for the government: choosing which tax to increase, where to set the new rate and what the time frame will look like. But the largest faction in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party once led by th


UK says will not be publishing the November PPI data as scheduled

UK Office for National Statistics: Says will cancel release of producer price inflation data next week Cancellation reflects previously announced quality problems with PPI data CPI data will be published on schedule on December 14 No word on when the PPI will be released. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at


Norway inflation data November. Headline -0.2% m/m (prior +0.3%) and core -0.1% (0.3%)

Welcome falls m/m but a long way to go to get y/y back into target range. I suspect that PPI ‘expected’ is not the correct number as a heads up. Thats a huge PPI result. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at


Saudi, China joint statement stressed the importance of stability in the world oil markets

The “Joint Statement at the Conclusion of the Saudi-Chinese Summit” has been published. On energy issues, in brief: both sides affirmed that their enhancement of cooperation in this field is considered an important strategic partnership. indicated that the development and consolidation of cooperation in the field of oil is in conformity with the common interests of both sides. In addition, they s


ECB’s Villeroy says cannot dismiss the possibility of an economic recession

Francois Villeroy de Galhau is Governor of Banque de France, and as such a member of the European Central Bank monetary policy committee, the Governing Council. He is crossing the wires with mangled comments, trying to cushion the blow: Ecnomic growth in France will probably be slightly positive in 2023 A temporary recession cannot be excluded forecasts 2.6% growth for 2022 Villeroy was speaking


Credit Suisse says China’s inflation likely to stay below 3% in the next 12 to 18 months

Greg had the CPI data from China earlier: China’s CPI YoY for November 1.6% versus 1.6% expected Credit Suisse (analyst speaking on CNBC in Asai) says We don’t think CPI is an issue in China, in fact, it’s going to be remaining steady within this range of 1% to 3% in the foreseeable future” consumer prices in China remained moderate due to weak demand in Q2 CS expect GDP up 6.1%, citing base effe


Possible BOJ Kuroda replacement says the Bank should review its policy

Takehiko Nakao is a former senior Japanese Finance Ministry official. he is being touted as a contender to replace Governor Haruhiko Kuroda next year when Kuroda’s term finishes in April 2023.Nakao spoke on Wednesday but his comment have only just been picked up by US financial media. Comment pointed at the side effects of prolonged ultra-loos Bank of Japan monetary policy: “They should review th


Credit Suisse: USD/JPY trade “a treacherous environment” – BOJ meeting probably irrelevant

The Bank of Japan next meet on December 19 and 20: Comments from CS come via eFX. Analysts are focused on Federal Reserve developments while the BOJ hold policy steady. For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus . For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here . Credit Suisse adopts a cautious bias on USD/JPY in the near-term. “Our cau


Russian oil – discount sale. Urals crude at Baltics ports this week assessed at $45/bbl.

A piece from Energy Intelligence : discounts for Russian Urals and Espo crudes have widened since an EU ban on Russian crude imports and G7 price cap took effect on Dec. 5. big buyers of Russian oil like India and China get more leverage to negotiate lower prices with Moscow. Urals crude at Baltics ports this week was assessed at $45/bbl, a discount of more than $30 versus dated Brent Export grad


FX option expiries for 09 December 2022 at the 10am New York cut

Some of these may be of use. EUR/USD 1.0600 EUR1.78bn 1.0300 EUR1.39bn 1.0695 EUR1.3bn USD/JPY 136.00 USD1.31bn 130.00 USD950mn USD/CNY 7.0000 USD1.6bn 6.9000 USD1.13bn USD/CAD 1.3500 USD1.23bn 1.3800 USD924.8mn AUD/USD 0.6800 AUD983.5mn 0.7000 AUD928.8mn 0.6700 AUD821.1mn EUR/GBP 0.8700 EUR381mn For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here . This article was writ


Australian PM announces government will set a price cap for gas (AUD12) and coal (AUD125)

Price cap levels announcement by Prime Minister Albanese: Gas at A$12 per gigajoule Coal at A$125 per tonne will apply for 12 months Part of an AUD 1.5bn support scheme for business and households. Albanese says the Australian Federal parliament will be recalled next week. Pre-Christmas call back – MPs will spew! Start date is Q2 2023. Caps aimed at holding back power prices. Gas and coal produce


OECD head Cormann says the global economic outlook is continuing to deteriorate

Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Mathias Cormann in China for meetings with officials. He met with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Li was speaking earlier: China’s Li: Inflation remains high in some countries. Risk of global recession increasing — Cormann is an Australian ex-Finance Minister. The government he was serving in was tipped out of pow


Economic calendar in Europe/UK – Friday, 9 December 2022 – BoE inflation attitudes survey

A barrage of CPI readings inbound. None of them will be close to their various central bank targets, of course. From the UK at 0930 GMT is the inflation expectations survey, dubbed the “Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey”. Survey results for November. it’s a quarterly survey prior is here: Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey – August 2022 This snapshot from the ForexLiv


Trade ideas thread – Friday, 9 December 2022, UK/Europe version!!!

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: – And, no, I did not get out of bed late today. Justin is having a day off so I am covering UK/Europe. Trade idea of the day seems to be to sell USD, yeah? Comments welcome! Friday tune … (I’m a bit


Australian crypto exchange Digital Surge entered voluntary administration

A bit of local crypto news from Australia. The firm froze trading last month after global competitor FTX went under. Circa 30K customers were impacted, unable to trade or withdraw money. Local press here report: KordaMentha Restructuring has been appointed as administrators and is working on a rescue package. Wishing all involved well. What a mess FTX precipitated. This article was written by Eam

was a relatively sedate session, traders are looking ahead to a busy
central bank driven week coming up next week with the Fed, Bank of
England and European Central Bank. Even today there was a focus
on US data with November PPI and December Michigan Sentiment ahead in
the coming hours.

popped a little (and, as I update, has not followed through) with
news that China is to sell 750bn yuan of bonds to fund an economic
boost. China news has been optimistic all week as reopening moves are
made and further support is provided to the troubled property sector.

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