Missile attack on Poland:
was once again the mover, trading up to approach 140.00 on the
session. It had dipped under 139.00 early.
from yen crosses moves across major FX rates were subdued.
the G20, G7 and NATO dialled down their response to the Tuesday
missile attack on Poland. Poland and NATO used language that
suggested they were not treating the missile blast as a Russian
attack. Later in the session US President Biden did the same. The
de-escalation saw a small move out of the USD (USD/JPY excepted).
China we had the mainland reporting more than 20,000 local COVID-19
cases today. This is the highest since April.
Australia we had wages data. The q/q result was the highest since
March of 2012, beating the expected +0.9% q/q rise to come in at
+1.0%. This is still well under the inflation rate, that is, real
wages are falling. The result is higher than the RBA forecast, but
given the RBA dismissed the latest surging inflation data (they say
they are data dependent, they are not) the wages data is not going to
prompt a +50bp rate hike at the December (6th)
meeting. +25 appears to be the base case.
US President Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 Presidential
Still to come from the US on Thursday are retail sales data for October. These are
eagerly awaited. After last week’s cooling US CPI inflation figures
and the same from Tuesday’s PPI results, a retail sales figure
below expectations will be another positive input for US equities,
signalling to the Federal Reserve that its time to ease back on hikes
for now, a direction the Fed has indicated its favouring.