Technical Analysis

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: GBP gapped higher

  • China says it’ll be further increasing its reserve capacities for key commodities
  • Wall Street Journal says the PBoC has signaled an on hold rate decision this week
  • The key takeaways from Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech at the party congress
  • PBoC injects 500bn yuan in a 1 year MLF, rate unchanged
  • PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1095 (vs. estimate at 7.1331)
  • Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda says appropriate to continue monetary easing
  • Weekend – OPEC Secretary General said that oil output cuts were a pre-emptive measure
  • Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (September NODX) -4% m/m (expected -2.1%)
  • ECB speakers on the agenda for Monday, 17 October 2022 – Guindos (EUR comments), Lane
  • Japan finance minister Suzuki: Will take decisive action on excess speculative FX moves
  • Japan’s peak FX official says will respond firmly to excessive forex moves
  • China’s Xi speech flagged no change to COVID-ZERO policy, no relief for property slump
  • Dow Jones/WSJ reports economists’ 63% probability on a US recession in the next 12 months
  • UK Times reports on moves to remove Prime Minister Truss
  • New Zealand September services PMI 55.8 (prior 58.6)
  • Goldman Sachs downgraded forecast for UK economy – now expect a “significant recession”
  • UAE Energy Minister: Latest OPEC decision was purely technical, unanimous, not political
  • Saudi King Salman says seeks to support stability and balance of global oil markets
  • European Union leaders will explore a range of options for gas price caps
  • Trade ideas thread – Monday, 17 October 2022
  • Monday morning forex open early indications – 17 October 2022 – GBP leap higher
  • Bank of England Gov Bailey says the next interest rate hike could be higher than expected
  • Bias. Risk. Targets. Why. Intrigued? The weekend forex trading video.
  • Earnings calendar next week highlighted by Goldman, Tesla, , IBM, AT&T, American Express
  • Week Ahead Preview: China CCP Congress; Inflation data from UK, NZ, EZ, JP, CA

trigger news for a gap higher for GBP in early Monday trade here were
remarks over the weekend from Bank of England Governor Bailey. He
said at the next BoE meeting (November 3):

  • As
    things stand today, my best guess is that inflationary pressures will
    require a stronger response than we perhaps thought in August”

a +75bp, and perhaps a +100bp, rate hike into contention.

generally the USD slipped a little in Asia trade today. EUR, CAD, AUD
& NZD are all up against the dollar. Traders are warily eyeing
the prospect of Bank of Japan yen-buying intervention after comments
from Japanese officials hardened, featuring words like “excess’,
‘speculative, ‘rapid’. More on these is here (I’ve posted
these links multiple times, but if you have missed them):

President Xi Jinping gave his speech opening the 20th Communist Party
congress in Beijing on Sunday. Of particular note were his remarks
indicating no change to the COVID-ZERO policy and no firm indications
of extra support for the collapsing property sector. Chinese
real-estate sector stocks were hit lower in morning trade. Regional
equities more broadly were also heavy. US S&P500 and Nasdaq
equity index futures rose in Sunday evening Globex trade.


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