Technical Analysis

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Awaiting US CPI data – expected to be still elevated


  • BOJ Gov Kuroda clarifies timing on when he expect the Japanese CPI to begin to slow
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda says further cutting the negative rate is among policy options if need
  • Fed speakers for Thursday, 10 November 2022: Waller, Harker, Logan, Daly, George, Williams
  • Crypto markets face weeks of deleveraging in FTX fallout, could push Bitcoin to $13,000
  • More from RBA dep gov Bullock – rates may need to rise further, getting closer to a pause
  • More again from Fed’s Kashkari – I don’t know what we’ll do in the December meeting
  • More from Fed’s Kashkari: Any talk of policy pivot is entirely premature
  • Russian President Putin will not attend the G20 meeting in Indonesia (another retreat!)
  • More from BOJ Gov. Kuroda – not at stage where we can debate an exit from easy policy
  • RBA’s Bullock and Kent Q&A in parliament
  • PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2422 (vs. estimate at 7.2456)
  • Fed’s Kashkari says inflation is not being driven by wages
  • BOJ Gov. Kuroda says Japanese CPI is likely to fall back under 2% next fiscal year
  • Société Generale flag 1.0190 resistance for EUR/USD (& further support, resistance levels)
  • US Senator Warren says that stricter enforcement is needed in the crypto space
  • Australian data – November Consumer Inflation Expectations 6.0% (prior 5.4%)
  • Australian state switches COVID alert from green to amber – new coronavirus wave
  • Canadian real estate lender Romspen has halted payouts on its largest fund
  • China’s deepening property crisis endangering up to $1.6 tln in government debt due
  • US CPI report coming up on Thursday – “likely to be another hot one”. Preview.
  • Apple’s Taiwanese chip maker, TSMC, is building a second US plant
  • Biden says can’t guarantee we are able to get rid of inflation, but thinks we can
  • Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Binance walks away from FTX deal
  • Goldman Sachs stay bearish GBP, further downside ahead vs. EUR and USD
  • Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 10 November 2022

Major
forex rates traded in fairly subdued ranges ahead of the US data for October
CPI due later Thursday. GBP was an exception, it traded steadily higher, gaining 50+ points with little in the way of news crossing. USD/JPY dribbled 40 or so points down from its early high.

News
and data flow was very light.

In
the crypto space, leader Bitcoin showed a bit of a (dead
cat?) bounce
from lows under USD16K. News
crossed that Sequoia Capital had written down its FTX investment to
zero dollars. The firm said its loss was around USD150mn but this is
more than offset by the fund holding the stake in the exchange
sitting on circa USD7.5bn in realized and unrealized gains.

We
had divergent central bankers speaking today. Minneapolis Federal
Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari was hawkish saying its far too
early for any pivot. On the other hand Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda
was his usual dovish self, saying loose
policy would remain in place, and could be eased further if needed
given he expected
Japanese inflation to fall back under 2% in the country’s next fiscal
year. Japan’s fiscal year
begins on April 1. I
hope he is not made to look foolish.

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