Technical Analysis

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD finds a bid as stocks fall.

A snapshot of markets are showing:

  • Spot gold is trading down $21.70 or -1.20% at $1792.82
  • spot silver is a down $0.40 or -1.7% at $23.55
  • WTI crude oil is trading near unchanged at $78.29
  • bitcoin is trading down marginally at $16,796

In the US stock market, the major indices closed lower with the:

  • Dow Industrial average -348.99 points or -1.05% at 33027.50
  • S&P index is down -56.07 points or -1.45% at 3822.38
  • NASDAQ index is down -233.24 points or -2.18% at 10476.13
  • Russell 2000 is down -22.85 points or -1.29% at 1754.08

The US dollar moved higher in trading today held by the falling US stock market, gold prices moving lower, and yields especially in the short and moving higher. The two year yield in the US moved up 6.3 basis points to 4.2778%. The 10 year yield was near a change of 3.684%.

Looking at the strongest weakest of the major currencies, the JPY and the USD were the biggest gainers, while the NZD and AUD moved in synch to the downside today. Both were lower on the day.

The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies

Fundamentally, initial jobless claims came in about as expected at 216 K versus 222K estimate. The Q3 final GDP was a stronger-than-expected 3.2% with the inflation portions of the data also higher than expected. The markets were vulnerable to stronger growth so the stocks moved lower and rates moved higher and that helped to push the US dollar and the JPY to the upside. The risk currencies like the NZD and AUD moved lower.


  • The EURUSD took out the high for the week by about 1 pip in the early European session, but could not sustain any upside momentum. The price then rotated lower, and took out the Monday low for the week by 3 pips in the US session to 1.05725 and ran out of downside momentum. So although the narrow range for the week of of above 82 pips was extended to 86 pips, the trading remains mostly contained by the floor near 1.0572 and the ceiling near 1.0658. The price is closing near 1.0595
  • The GBPUSD moved back below its 200 day moving average at 1.20792 and also fell below its 200 bar moving average on the four hour chart near 1.20188. The low price reached 1.19914 before bouncing back higher. The price is closing above its 200 bar moving average on 4 hour chart at 1.2035. In the new trading day the move back below that level would be needed to increase a bearish bias, and give sellers more confidence. Conversely a move back above the 200 day moving average would give buyers more control once again
  • The AUDUSD did below its 100 day moving average of 0.66578 reaching a low price of 0.66497. However selling dried up and the price is closing back above the key daily moving average. The price currently trading at 0.66676. In the new trading day, he moved back below the 100 day moving average (at 0.66578) would increase the bearish bias. Alternatively, if that moving average can continue to hold support, the 100 hour moving average at 0.66958 would be eyed on the topside.
  • The NZDUSD also fell below a key daily moving average. For the NZDUSD it fell below its 200 day moving average at 0.6255. The low price extended to 0.6230 before rotating back to the upside to retest the moving average near the end of day. However sellers have leaned against that level and the price is closing just below the 200 day moving average of 0.62464. In the new trading day, the 200 day moving average will be the barometer for buyers and sellers. Stay below is more bearish. Move above is more bullish.

For those in the Asian-Pacific session, good fortune with your trading, and wishing you and yours a Merry Christmas.

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