Technical Analysis

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Jobs headlines strong but the market has questions


  • Gold down $5 to $1797
  • WTI crude oil down 99-cents to $80.22
  • US 10-year yields down 2.4 bps to 3.50%
  • S&P 500 down 10 points to 4072
  • JPY leads, CAD lags

The US dollar was soft all week in the lead-up to non-farm payrolls and that was particularly true of USD/JPY in the hours before the release as the pair touched 133.64 early in Europe. With a strong bid in bonds, the market is seeing a Fed peak or creeping economic weakness.

So naturally non-farm payrolls were strong and the latest batch of dollar bears was stung by a quick roughly 150 pips US dollar rally across the board. The main headlines on jobs and wages were strong with hourly avg hours up 0.6% compared to 0.3% expected.

Then it all came slowly undone. People began to pick holes in the wages story with hours worked ticking lower. Then they looked closer a the household survey and noted another decline and a flat trend since March:

US household survey nonfarm payrolls

The result was a slow give-back of all the US dollar gains. That left the euro and pound largely unchanged on the day with USD/JPY down a full cent.

Helping the move was a relentless long-end led bid in bonds for the second day. US 30s fell 9 bps to 3.54% from a high of 3.70% shortly after the jobs report.

The Canadian dollar also had a jobs report to deal with and it was upbeat with a 50K increase in full time jobs. That makes next week’s BOC meeting a bit more intriguing with the market 76% priced for 25 bps but with the remainder on 50 bps. The loonie underperformed but that was on a reversal in oil prices with the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday looming and the G7 oil price cap set to go into effect on Monday.

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