Technical Analysis

Fed’s Waller dismisses US CPI report as ‘just one data point’, markets ‘way out in front’

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The governors vote at each Federal Open Market Committee

  • Waller is speaking on his economic outlook before the Australasia Conference, in Sydney, Australia

Headlines via Reuters:

  • Friday’s CPI report is “just one data point,” markets “way
    out in front”
  • Will need to see a
    run of CPI reports to take a foot off the brake
  • Positive that goods
    prices came down with some moderation in services, but it needs to
  • Fed caught
    “flatfooted” in 2021 when inflation seemed to moderate then
  • 7.7% CPI inflation
    is “enormous,” fed still has a long way to go, rates will
    stay high for a while


  • Beginning to see a little softening in the labor market, but the “shocking part” is that strength remains after rate increases
  • its critical that the US gets inflation down, “fairly quickly” if possible
  • so far inflation expectations a couple of years out seem to be holding
  • US policy rate is not that high given the level of inflation
  • Federal Reserve can begin to think about moving at a slower pace


  • If expectations were to become unanchored, you wouldn’t see it happening with a lot of advanced notice in the data. It wouldn’t happen gradually. “You don’t pop a balloon slowly. Once it goes, it goes.”

Waller is pouring some cold water on surging risk markets. Dunno why he called it Friday’s CPI report.

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