Technical Analysis

Fed’s beige book for October is released. A little good/a little not so good is the theme.

  • The Feds Beige Book outlines anecdotal economic trends
Greg Michalowski

For the full report CLICK HERE

  • National economic activity expanded modestly on net since the previous report; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts.
  • Four Districts noted flat activity and two cited declines with slowing or weak demand attributed to higher interest rates, inflation , and supply disruptions
  • Retail spending was relatively flat, reflecting lower discretionary spending, and auto dealers noted sustained sluggishness in sales stemming from limited inventories, high vehicle prices, and rising interest rates.
  • Travel and tourist activity rose strongly, boosted by continued strength in leisure activity and a pickup in business travel.
  • Manufacturing activity held steady or expanded in most Districts in part due to easing in supply chain disruptions, though there were a few reports of output declines.
  • Demand for nonfinancial services rose. Activity in transportation services was mixed, as port activity increased strongly whereas reports of trucking and freight demand were mixed.
  • Rising mortgage rates and elevated house prices further weakened single-family starts and sales, but helped buoy apartment leasing and rents, which generally remained high.

On employment

  • Employment continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts.
  • Several Districts reported a cooling in labor demand, with some noting that businesses were hesitant to add to payrolls amid increased concerns of an economic downturn.
  • There were also scattered mentions of hiring freezes

On prices:

  • Price growth remained elevated, though some easing was noted across several Districts.
  • Significant input price increases were reported in a variety of industries, though some declines in commodity, fuel, and freight costs were noted.
  • Growth in selling prices was mixed, with stronger increases reported by some Districts and a moderation seen in others.
  • Some contacts noted solid pricing power over the past six weeks, while others said cost passthrough was becoming more difficult as customers push back.
  • Looking ahead, expectations were for price increases to generally moderate.

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