Technical Analysis

Federal Reserve insider says Fed research shows jobs growth not as strong as thought


The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos with the tweet:

This adds to signs that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to slow its rate hike path as soon as February, although March seems more likely at this stage. Tonight’s CPI will be more information to add in. If its on the lowish side it’ll add further to a +25 in February.

Previews:

Boston Fed President Collins likes +25 in February:

Note that Collins is a non-voter on the FOMC this year. And note also, this does not matter.

Why is Timiraos an ‘insider’? Read on …

Back in June 2022 Timiraos dropped the bombshell during the Federal Reserve blackout period:

WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is just out with a new report previewing the FOMC.

“A string of troubling inflation reports in recent days is likely to lead Federal Reserve officials to consider surprising markets with a larger-than-expected 0.75-percentage-point interest rate increase at their meeting this week,” he writes.

The report is speculation but it taps into the old-style Fed leaks.

That post, as was Timiraos, was spot-on.

Timiraos has thus been crowned the new Hilsenrath (you may remember his role during the Bernanke Fed as a provider of Fed-insider info).

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